Conjecture on why the import volume of the hottest

2022-08-19
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In the first half of 2009, the domestic polyolefin market was booming and the market was advancing bravely. The introduction of many data also set a new historical record one by one, and the most eye-catching one was the monthly import volume. However, once the customs data were released, when many operators exclaimed, the market immediately raised doubts: Why did the import volume of polyolefins soar? Is such an amazing amount really digested by the market

the so-called "Dispelling doubts requires a prophet". With doubts, let's first look at a set of data

according to customs statistics, the total domestic import of polypropylene in 2009 amounted to 2.3796 million tons, an increase of 59.14% compared with the same period in 2008; The total import volume of polyethylene was 3.7468 million tons, an increase of 63.84% compared with the same period in 2008

comparison chart of annual polyethylene import volume (unit: 10000 tons)

comparison chart of annual polyethylene import volume

such a huge increase can't help but surprise people, but we think the story behind the figures is more intriguing

e-commerce believes that at the end of 2008 or the beginning of the support of the Chunlei talent project of Ningbo Institute of materials in 2009, domestic operators generally hold a pessimistic attitude towards the impact of the financial crisis. After the "de Stocking" behavior, the overall inventory of the society remains at a low level. However, with the support of the government, China's economic recovery was better than that of other countries, resulting in the rapid emergence of demand. When domestic demand was effectively driven, polyolefin prices in the Chinese market rebounded first, leading to the emergence of arbitrage windows. At this time, the operating rate of existing domestic devices is not high, providing an opportunity for a large number of imported goods to flow into the Chinese market

in addition, we believe that the reason why foreign goods were cheap at that time was also closely related to the serious contraction of downstream demand in foreign markets, and the transmission was stable. It should be said that compared with the Chinese market, the recovery speed of the foreign market was relatively slow, resulting in excess supply at that time. Suppliers had to find other ways to digest inventory, so they coincidentally targeted the signs at the Chinese market, which was the first to recover, which also became one of the main factors for the surge in imports in the first half of the year

of course, after putting forward the concept of "de Stocking", we have to ask, when the domestic production has been sufficient since the beginning of 2009 and the monthly import volume has increased sharply, what level of "re Stocking" has been completed in the domestic market at present? As the concept of social inventory has not yet been quantified by accurate data, and the actual social inventory capacity of the market is unknown, but as far as we know from the current situation of the axis of swing part 10 before we conduct the mechanical property test of building materials, the finished product inventory of some downstream industries has gradually recovered, and the reconstruction of social inventory seems to have reached a bottleneck period, or is basically completed, Or is about to be completed. If analyzed from this perspective, it is unlikely that the import volume will continue this amazing increase in the second half of the year, and there will be a certain degree of reduction. However, considering the general delay of the order shipping schedule in the first half of the year, it may be difficult for the monthly import volume in the third quarter to decrease sharply, that is, the import volume in July and August will probably remain at a high level

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